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Broadband Competition Outlook 2010
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Cable and telephone companies could see some new customer growth in 2010 as home sales begin to pick up. But with the jobless rate expected to remain above 10%, consumers will continue to look for ways to cut their spending, which could mean lower ARPU for service providers. In this report, we offer more details on these trends and provide our forecasts on customer growth for new multichannel video services, residential high-speed Internet, IP telephony, and the features and applications that ride on those technologies. Among our projections is a forecast of 77 million or more U.S. broadband-connected homes by yearend, representing 65.5% of total households.
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
Multichannel Video
High-speed Internet
Telephony
Wireless
--3G
--4G
Conclusion: Content Pulls It All Together
TABLE OF FIGURES
Figure 1: Total U.S. Multichannel Video Households*
Figure 2: Projected Multichannel Video Market Shares
Figure 3: U.S. Digital Cable Subscriptions
Figure 4: U.S. DBS Subscribers
Figure 5: U.S. Telco On-Network Video Subscribers
Figure 6: Projected U.S. High-speed Internet Subscribers
Figure 7: Net New High-speed Internet Customers
Figure 8: Cable Phone Subscribers
Figure 9: Net New Cable Phone Subscribers
Figure 10: Clearwire U.S. WiMAX Customers
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FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Broadband Sign-ups To Fall By 10 Percent in 2010, Forecast Shows
Silver Spring, MD—Approximately 4 million U.S. households will become new high-speed Internet customers this year, marking a 10% decline in subscriber growth compared to 2009, according to a new forecast by market research provider Pike & Fischer.
The total number of broadband-connected homes will exceed 77 million by the end of the year, representing about 65 percent of all U.S. households, P&F says in its new report, Broadband Competition Outlook 2010.
With the economy still sputtering, both cable operators and telephone companies will see stunted growth in broadband Internet subscribers, but the telephone companies will face a particularly difficult year as they continue to lose DSL customers. While top telephone companies such as Verizon and AT&T are providing new fiber-optic Internet services that can exceed the speeds offered by cable, most of their service areas are covered only by DSL service, which consumers are increasingly spurning because its speeds are slower than cable. Thus, the telephone companies will add only about 1.7 million new broadband subscribers over the course of the year, P&F says. The cable industry will capture about 2.1 million new broadband subscribers, according to the report.
The current year will also see an uptick in adoption of next-generation wireless broadband services, particularly the WiMAX services being offered by Clearwire, P&F says. Top cable operators like Comcast and Time Warner Cable, along with Google and Intel, are investors in Clearwire and have agreed to market Clearwire services to their customers. Clearwire is also marketing its services through independent resellers and large electronics retail chains. The company stands to add 387,000 new subscribers to its WiMAX service during 2010, P&F analysts predict.
Pike & Fischer, a BNA business, offers a host of legal and business products covering the telecommunications industry. The report, Broadband Competition Outlook 2010, is priced at $659 and is available for purchase at www.broadbandadvisoryservices.com. For analyst commentary or to request a briefing, contact Scott Sleek at 301-562-1530 x291 / ssleek@pf.com.
For information about Pike & Fischer’s Broadband Advisory Services, visit www.broadbandadvisoryservices.com or contact Jonathan Wentworth Ping at 973-718-4703 / jping@pf.com.
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Scott Sleek
Scott Sleek, Director of Pike & Fischer's Broadband Advisory Services, oversees the day-to-day operations of our market research services and leads the development of analytical publications and briefings. As part of his duties, Scott serves as Managing Editor of our online newsletter Broadband Daily. Scott also oversees the development of all Research Reports & Briefs and manages the Trackers & Projections database. He regularly tracks subscriber growth, market penetration and revenue growth in the markets for high-speed Internet, packet-switched telephony, interactive TV, wireless data and other forms of broadband communications and entertainment. Scott also fields all requests for customized research and works closely with customers to fulfill their market data and analysis needs. Scott has more than 20 years of experience as a writer, editor and researcher. Contact Scott at 301-562-1530, x291 / ssleek@pf.com.
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